Frequency domain likelihood approximations for time series bootstrapping and bayesian nonparametrics

Claudia Kirch (Universität Magdeburg)
Wednesday, May 24, 2017 - 10:00am
WIAS, Erhard-Schmidt-Saal, Mohrenstraße 39, 10117 Berlin

A large class of time series methods are based on a Fourier analysis, which can be considered as a whitening of the data, giving rise for example to the famous Whittle likelihood. In particular, frequency domain bootstrap methods have been successfully applied in a large range of situations. In this talk, we will first review existing frequency domain bootstrap methodology for stationary time series before generalizing them for locally stationary time series. To this end, we first introduce a moving Fourier transformation that captures the time-varying spectral density in a similar manner as the classical Fourier transform does for stationary time series. We obtain consistent estimators for the local spectral densities and show that the corresponding bootstrap time series correctly mimics the covariance behavior of the original time series. The approach is illustrated by means of some simulations and an application to a wind data set. All time series bootstrap methods are implicitely using a likelihood approximation, which could be used explicitely in a Bayesian nonparametric framework for time series. So far, only the Whittle likelihood has been used in this context to get a nonparametric Bayesian estimation of the spectral density of stationary time series. In a second part of this talk we generalize this approach based on the implicit likelihood from the autoregressive aided periodogram bootstrap introduced by Kreiss and Paparoditis (2003). This likelihood combines a parametric approximation with a nonparametric correction making it particularly attractive for Bayesian applications. Some theoretic results about this likelihood approximation including posterior consistency in the Gaussian case are given. The performance is illustrated in simulations and an application to LIGO gravitational wave data.